China's Military Spending Grows Despite Economic Downturn

Writing in The China Post [www.chinapost.com.tw], John J. Metzler warns of Beijing's ambition to emerge as the world's leading military power.

China 'going global' with military
By John J. Metzler, Special to The China Post
Saturday, March 28, 2009

Despite the economic downturn affecting much of China's export —oriented economy, there's an unquestionable upturn in its military spending according to a new Pentagon report on Beijing's military developments. And while decadelong military spending trends continue, there's a redefinition of Beijing's military mission from its traditional standoff with rival Taiwan to a more global posture stretching from the South China Sea to the shores of Somalia. Though the People's Republic of China's military spending is roughly double that of a decade ago, the facts emerge that the mainland's military forces are focusing not on the old doctrine of a huge but unwieldy people's/peasant army, but on lean and mean troop levels, upgrades to newer generation aircraft and naval vessels, and sophisticated electronic, computer, and cyber warfare techniques. Moreover, there's a distinct lack of transparency in the amounts for military spending on specific programs which are fueled by Beijing's massive foreign exchange reserves, by a budding nationalism, and its vision to be a great power.

The Pentagon report asserts that the Chinese “armed forces continue to develop and field disruptive military technologies,” including “nuclear, space, and cyber warfare.” Such capabilities were surprisingly shown by the PRC's shooting down of a communications satellite, the growing sophistication of PRC computer warfare and computer virus capabilities, and the reality that China's high technology industries, often indirectly subsidized and enhanced by American and East Asian investors, have noticeably improved capability in such vital areas. In a time of crisis, cyber warfare could target, disrupt, and disable civil communications, electronic power grids, air traffic control, and naturally military communications themselves.

On a more traditional note, the number of medium range missiles facing Taiwan across the Taiwan Straits has grown despite the welcome political thaw in relations between Beijing and Taipei. The report states that the PRC is developing “coercive capabilities,” towards Taiwan and “these same capabilities could in the future be used to pressure Taiwan toward a settlement of the cross-straits dispute on Beijing's terms while simultaneously attempting to deter, delay or deny any possible U.S. support for the island in case of conflict.

Let's not forget that while there is currently conciliatory talk between the Peoples' Republic and its democratic rivals on Taiwan, Beijing's rulers have never renounced the use of force to bring what they describe as a “renegade province” under the control of the Chinese communists. While commercial, cultural, tourist and transportation links have blossomed between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, the ultimate status and sovereignty of the Republic of China on Taiwan as a free and democratic island remains threatened. The PRC's naval modernization received renewed attention when Beijing dispatched ships to the Somali coast to assist in U.N. efforts in anti-piracy operations. Though this long-range naval deployment underscores Beijing's blue-water naval capacities, this is hardly a threat as much as a maritime milestone; a return to the very coastlines plied by Chinese vessels during the Ming Dynasty. The fabled fleets of Admiral Cheng Ho sailed these waters in the 1400s more than fifty years before Portuguese mariners arrived from the opposite direction.

What is far more troubling is that Beijing's Marxist mandarins have looked to the vastness of the South China Sea as a kind of Sino Mare Nostrum; evoking the concept of Our Sea, which Mussolini's nationalists used to describe the Mediterranean as an Italian Lake. The South China Sea is claimed by Beijing, but bordered by the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia. Also, the disputed but resource-rich Parcel and Spratly islands are scattered through this basin. China claims the sea as its territorial waters and is willing to exert de facto control of this vital region as part of its exclusive economic zone, its shipping lanes of communication, and a southern defense bulwark.

Recently, Chinese vessels harassed an American naval surveillance ship near the PRC submarine base on Hainan island. The U.S. Navy sent a destroyer to escort the surveillance vessel to safe waters. Though the incident fortunately did not escalate, the lesson is clear; this is China's geographic neighborhood.

While the U.S. and many NATO nations remain transfixed on the Taliban threat in Afghanistan, rogue players like North Korea and Islamic Iran will take advantage of the situation to destabilize the equilibrium. Meanwhile, serious but cautious players like the PRC shall probe the parameters of this classic sphere of influence. China's “Mare Nostrum,” may soon become a geopolitical fact as Beijing tips the global balance of power.

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues.

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/the-china-post/john-metzler/2009/03/28/201981/p1/China-%27going.htm